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November 5, 2007

SWL 337

The Port recently put this 600,000SF property out for RFQ/RFP on a 75 year groundlease basis.  Curbed and Socketsite are abuzz with opinion about what this site wants to be--

image

The port needs $1B to cover the gap in its operating and cap exp budgets, and it is using the ground lease of this site as a way to cover a significant part of this shortfall. 

The Port is counting on $8 to $10M in rent, which translates into about $250 PSF in residual value. My guess is you need an FAR of about 3 to make this work.  From the Mission Bay Standards, this looks achievable.

image Opportunities/Constraints?

  • LEED Gold or better.
  • 2.57 acre China Basin Park to be developed as part of the plan.
  • No height restriction.
  • residential allowed as a potential use--unique for a waterfront location.
  • close to UCSF Med Center
  • Bayfront location.
  • Replace all infrastructure, including Terry Francois boulevard.
  • classic path of development play.

The math:

About 1.2MSF of buildable, at $750PSF TDC means this is a ~$1B total build out. 

Uses? 

Hotel--long term obviously, although this is a remote location for the next ten years.  There is a 500 room hotel use permitted across Third Street from this site. ADR hasn't accelerated to the point where you are seeing much new product.

Destination--some interesting options, but how much ground rent can be paid?

Office--subject to Prop M, and the Hines/Pelli Transbay project has the potential to tie up all the City's office space entitlements for roughly ten years.

Retail--the old "half a trade area" problem, the other half of the trade area being residents of San Francisco Bay and not huge shoppers.

Condos--the late saviour of the commercial construction market is oversupplied right now.  There are several condo sites being quietly offered, and no takers.  The fact that this site is groundleased means that condos are not a real option.

Rental housing--obvious use, but can it pay $100K/door?  You need $6 PSF rents to do that.  You have a few units on Craigslist pushing $5, so this is probably a 4 cap on trended rents.

The site used to be the old H&H Ship Service Company's tank farm, so you don't want to excavate much at all.  The Giants want 2000 spaces of ballpark parking--actually not much for a major league park.

Chase costs will be significant--any deal requires approval by the State Lands commission, and amendments by BCDC, but this is a marquee site in one of the world's greatest cities.

Oh ye gods, why do you tempt me so?

December 22, 2006

Land Use Insanity

..coupled with a budget bust and inability of our legislators to get us out of the corner that we have painted ourselves into.  I am referring to the 275 acres of bayfront, sun-drenched coastline that is probably the most poorly utilized piece of property in Marin County.

If you have been reading Cursed, you know that the old prison, a grandfathered land use from the 1850's, has been nagging at me for a long time.

The legislature approved $220K per cell in 2002.  We are now told the price has doubled.   I am cursed by knowing the numbers, and the numbers seemed funny a year ago.  For a land use that is wrong.  On a spot with incredible potential...

Is this game over?  Or a wake up call?  The corner we are in is because this is the only spot in California authorized by the Legislature to house condemned male inmates [the women are housed in Chowchilla].  The state auditor questioned the location.

We can start to fix this by changing the law...giving ourselves more options.  Now may be the last chance to recycle this site for a use that will make a difference--to California and to us here in Marin.  There is movement in Sacramento to solve the prison problem.  Now is the time to press for another location--let's change the law and get on with it.  Nothing can happen until the legislators change the law regarding death row and San Quentin.

This Glamour Slammer is running $440,000 a door, $1,100 PSF, just because it has always been there..

There is an alternative.

 A transit village linking ferry, car, SMART with homes for anywhere from 4 to 10,000 Marinites.  The State Auditor said from gains in prison operating efficiencies alone, the payback would be less than 30 years.

ABAG says we need the land for housing.  I understand that prisons are the third rail of State politics.  Not sufficient reason to continue this land use insanity.  This needs to stop.  Now.

Print out this letter [.pdf]and fax it to our State Senator, Carole Migden.

Print out this letter [.pdf] and fax it to our State Assemblyman, Jared HuffmanEmail Assemblyman Huffman.

October 23, 2006

Resistance is Futile, Edition No. 8,837...

Starbucks Total Store Count, as of three weeks ago...

 
Find out how many Starbucks are within a five mile radius of where you are.  These guys aren't coffee purveyors, they are masters of understanding where disposable income and their targeted aspirational psychographics intersect.  First thing I check when doing research on a site.

OK, enough fiddle-futzing around, back to making another projected dollar...

August 23, 2006

A Conversation with...

...Stephen Suzman and Lisa Guthrie of Suzman & Cole Landscape Architects about how to work best with your landscape architect, what is important, and what isn't.

1. Is "voice" important when looking for a landscape architect?

Landscape architecture primarily needs to respond to the site.  The landscape architect needs to understand the site, its opportunities and constraints, its microclimate, and the preferences of the client.

Planting a formal French garden that is not responsive to the site is not a valid solution.  Voice is possible, voice can be a fashion, but the opportunities and constraints of the site need to guide you.

We do not specialize in a particular vernacular, what we are is perceptive, inventive, and resourceful. Our goal is to produce a hybrid design--a new response that avoids endless repetition and sterility.  The Bay Area is an extremely conservative place (from a design perspective) where firms that provide only one voice limit their options.

The client's personal preferences, colors, plants and styles, are essential to identify early on, through an interview or a questionnaire process.

2. What three questions should an Owner ask you when you first sit down?

  • Are you available?
  • Is this something you would be interested in?
  • Have you worked in this jurisdiction before?
  • Are you familiar with the microclimate?


3. What are the fundamental elements that you work with, in terms of complexity and cost?

  • Water--extremely expensive to provide from a budget perspective.  (Ted: $300 to $500 per square foot of surface area for custom pools and spas).  Maintenance and room for pumps and filters is needed.
  • Grade changes and retaining walls--retaining walls are very expensive (Ted: $35 to $70 per SF of wall) and steps and stairs need to be developed to circulate through the site.  Rise and run of these steps are critical.
  • Paving, parking, and tennis courts--paving can be expensive (Ted: can range in cost from $15 to $200 per square foot).  The wrong surface can easily degrade in the environment.  Grade changes for the automobile are difficult to manipulate without creating a bunker feel.  Automobile turnarounds, fire department requirements on rural sites.  Tennis courts can be a challenge.
  • Drainage--more plants succumb to bad drainage than any other malady.  Leaky pools.  Drainage needs to be addressed by the civil engineer.
  • Dialogue, early and meaningful,  with the building architect to review site, grades, retaining walls.  With the client, to make sure we understand their preferences.
  • Safety--stairs and lighting.  Providing a comfortable rise and run on steps.  Stair and pathway lighting.
  • Transplanting Trees--some plants will be lost, it is a fact, and something we can recover from.  Trees need to be pruned for safety.
  • Color--sample matches on pool plaster, hardscape, and paving are very important..  Samples need to be approved and archived and used to accept built finishes.  There is a wider palette to work with today than previously--materials are sourced worldwide.  No mica.  Porous stones need to be dark to hide staining.
  • Lighting--safety lighting is critical, pathway and stair lighting.  Pool lighting.underlighting rather than overlighting.  Avoid high contrast--transitions from inside to outside are critical.

4.  How do you relate to the buildings existing or proposed on the site?

Site planning is a chicken and egg process between the Architect and Landscape Architect to identify opportunities and constraints.  Sloping sites are particularly important to understand early on.  Siting the building properly makes a huge difference.

Outdoor program should be an early product of the design process.  Outdoor rooms are different--the solar aspect, the fact there is no ceiling, and they change through the day and the season.  Interior space is much more finite.

5.  Views are critical to owners in the Bay Area.  How do you respond to this need?

Borrowing views in an urban property, minimizing views from offsite and maximizing privacy is one of our key tasks.  Developing view corridors on rural properties comes out during our initial discussions with the architect and Owner. 

6.  And plants?
Owners usually start with plants, but that is typically the last thing you work through on a site.  You don't really know what wants to go where until you have developed your grades, circulation, and view corridors.

7.  How important is a site survey?

A complete, topographical survey with two foot contours  is critical.  A complete site survey is the best $10 to $20K that you can spend to understand grades.  (Ted: AGREED!!).

8.  What are the more difficult needs you have to respond to?

People want what they haven't got.  Its never what you can, its what you can't. Flat sites want to be elevated, sloping sites want to be flat (Ted: see retaining walls, above).

Building Codes.  Owners ask me to skirt building  codes on their projects.  Code compliance is very important and a reality that you have to deal with all the time. 

9.  What is the one thing that needs to be understood, but is tragic if it isn't?

Wind.  People don't like it, and it picks up in the afternoon when you want to be outside entertaining.  Critical in San Francisco, and on any high elevation site.  Very important to design around it, but if not understood early enough, responses are too late and not effective.

10.  What seems important, but really isn't?

Whether you have done this garden before is not an issue.  It is understanding the site--not providing the same solution to different problems.

 

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July 5, 2006

The Perfect Site...

probably has a house on it already, especially if you live in Northern California.

The increasing occurrence of teardowns is due to the fact that:

1. We haven't built many new roads in the last twenty years, while the number of cars per household (1.9) is now greater than the number of people (1.8).

2. Many of the better sites were built on with summer cottages after the 06 quake>>fire. Although the "cottage framing" many of these older places have doesn't meet modern codes, it is the site, the light, the tranquility and the views that you are really paying for.

3. The lots that are available now were either not buildable without modern engineering and construction technology, or had constraints that still exist, but can be discounted and still have a transaction.

So what do you look for when buying a site? Southern exposure for light, <40% slope for buildability (in Marin, Sonoma and Napa, anyway), rock close to the surface, and all utlities close by.

Know your microclimates--in Sausalito they seem to change from block to block.

Secondarily you, or your architect, needs to clearly understand site coverage and massing (floor area ratio, building heights, shadowing adjacent property) and circulation for cars and people.

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