Cursed By Knowing The Numbers

...had to be Michelle Kaufmann's mkLotus house--a 640SF prefab erected in Civic Center Plaza.

It seemed wider than the 14'-6" wide chassis would indicate, and fit and finish was above expectation. 

The indoor/outdoor feel was a big deal.  This is probably the hardest element to duplicate when your land costs require you to achieve higher densities.

Transportation of the cube turns out to be less of an issue than I thought--range is 400 miles @ $5/mi, a nice improvement over my previous150 mile heuristic.

It fomented all sorts of ideas--prefabbing kitchen/bath cores on higher density product >>

Resort development becoming more feasible because site construction unknowns are reduced.

Quicker mixed use>>Santana Row'ing retail because your time on site is now within the retail downtime [Jan to May] window.

Looks like the house is a zero energy house--we need to get all our projects to achieve this.  The house is Green Point Rated by Build It Green.

Interested?  Here is her book. 

And the numbers?  Per Justin Brown, bizdev guy for the firm, $110 PSF, not including foundation, decks, or hookups.  TDC is probably ~$400PSF, about 10% less than site built right now.

Posted by Ted at 7:53 PM | Permalink

I need to demystify pv.  Now a part of my plan on all my upcoming projects, I find that I need to convince my bankers and investors that it is more than window dressing--it is an essential part of branding my real estate.  The conventional wisdom is that it costs too much.

Moving from convention to the unconventional takes two things--

1. the system needs to be designed and sized right, and
2. it needs to be extremely buildable--unique designs are often priced to reflect unknowns.

It seems pv is now considered an exotic material by architects--more along the lines of tail fins rather than a true performance enhancement.  The answer lies somewhere in the middle--but I have not seen that answer produced yet. Aesthetics are the primary consideration, but aesthetics that do not respect the performance nature of pv will be remodeled out in ten years.

Look at it this way--stone or spandrel glass is about $75 to $100 PSF--about the same cost as PV.  And PV pays for itself in roughly 8 years, whereas the building skin material has no payback.  Starting to make sense?

Integrating solar power harvesting with the skin of a building is starting to become more widely understood.  The blue-toned cells of a polycrystalline module are now a part of the palette of materials available when I am struggling with what a site, and its structure, wants to be.  It enriches the story the asset tells.

The biggest hurdle is how I handle the costs.  BIPV, from a financial perspective, is simply front-loading energy costs into the building budget.  If I design the system right, my operating costs will be lower, demand for the space will be higher, and I can have certainty of supply when combined with a UPS system.  But it can easily double my electrical line item budget, causing a construction lender to grow faint.

BIPV is the visual evidence of green design.

For my financial partners--it requires a leap of faith as it is too new for many of them.  I split out the math--and look at bipv as a capitalized operating expense, and take the deduct on the construction cost side if there is one.  For my designers, it is easier to convince them that integration of the energy and environmental design features in a holistic way can be done--on time and on budget.

One of my main objectives over the next five years is to get the costs of this line item down.  And continually refine design.

If you are interested in joining the parade, download this BIPV design guide [.pdf 9MB].

Posted by Ted at 7:17 AM | Permalink

Article in Sunday's NYT real estate magazine--Key--about aromatherapy in commercial real estate.  Inspired by retailers such as Pottery Barn and Starbucks at creating distinctive environments through meticulously chosen lighting, woods, background music, and fabrics, scent design is now the new frontier. 

Scent marketing is becoming increasingly pervasive--Advertising Age named it one of their top ten trends to watch in 2007.  Starting with a development's traditional architecture and interiors vocabulary--the identity is expanded to include aromas and auditory elements to tell a story, reinforce the project's position and seduce the target demographic.

Smell is the primary way most creatures identify mates, food and home--our most primal and deeply rooted sense.

"The ambiance that scent creates is critical"

"People will make quicker decisions, be willing to pay more for the property and most likely be so emotionally engaged that they are removed from the rational part of their behavior"

Now companies like ScentAir and AromaSys promise to help you and your project tap into the power of a memorable aroma.

Time for me to wake up and smell the coffee [ugh] on this tool--can't wait to put it to work on my next project.

Posted by Ted at 6:17 PM | Permalink

...where they are not supposed to be are three things that drive owners crazy.

Speaking of squeaks, There is a great article in today's NYTT about the importance of acoustically conditioning a home.  Overkill is my approach during construction.  It is much more cost effective to deploy more rock, more insulation and acoustically isolate drain lines at this time than to try and fix it later.

The cost to do a reasonably good soundproofing job adds anywhere from $3 to $20PSF, but the qualitative difference is well worth it.

My secrets?

• Sheetrock/resilient channel/QuietRock is by far the most effective material to acoustically condition a space.
• Steel studs lessen the mass of a wall, making this an option for interior framing.
• Acoustiblok is a mass loaded vinyl product that is installed over the framing and behind the sheetrock.  Installer error is an issue here, make sure; one, the installer knows what they are doing, and two, you inspect the penetrations (outlets, switches, recessed lighting) before surfaces are rocked.
• Windows are a big source of flanking noise, make sure you, or your builder or architect, understands the STC characteristics when evaluating your window options.

And when I really need a room to be quiet, I call Charlie.

Posted by Ted at 12:50 PM | Permalink

in the real estate market, that is.

From the people at Zillow, residential prices [$/PSF], conveniently color coded. 

Now to find one that allows you to trend over time...

Posted by Ted at 8:41 PM | Permalink

An Italian firm has patented a concrete mix that photocatalyzes nitric oxide pollutants in the air, breaking these smog creating compounds into less harmful carbon dioxide, nitrates and water.

Best performance is achieved in architecture with large surface areas and direct sunlight in locations with high traffic flows--urban.  An additional benefit is the long term preservation of bright, clean concrete surfaces.  The cement is white and the installation can be precast, plastered, or cast in place.

Results show a 45 to 60% reduction in nitric oxides via photocatalysis.  Cost of the concrete is 30 to 40% greater, but I would look at a plastered surface with this admix.  Test results in Milan showed covering 15% of visible urban surfaces with this material enables a reduction in pollution of approximately 50%.

Projects using photocatalytic cements [.pdf].

Q&A [.pdf]

Download the Scientific Results [.pdf].

Posted by Ted at 2:45 PM | Permalink

  I have built several pools, and all of them have been headaches.  I don't know if it is the trade contractors, or if my specs are difficult, but I have never made it through the process without a great deal of handholding.

Pools, and water, add magic to a home.  It is one of Legorreta's trademark materials, and no resort home would be the same without a resort pool.

So the headaches, in the end, are worth it.  I have learned a few things along the way.  Here's some of what I know:

Pool Mechanicals

Controllers--I find either the Jandy or the Intellitouch systems work well and both tie into my home automation systems--although I wish they offered an IP based controller.

Install a little meter on the makeup water line.  You will lose roughly 0.5 to 0.75 inch per day from evaporation, any more than that--you have a leak.  7.82 gallons to the cubic foot, or 1 gallon from 200 SF of pool surface area.

 I use the Strantrol system to monitor and maintain pH and HRR.

For oxidizing bacteria, I prefer a bromine system over a chlorinated system, and ozonation for hot tubs. 

The big things to understand are how quickly you need to bring pool temp up, what the turnover is--usually <4 hours for a residential pool, and flow rate and flow rate changes through the different elements [fountains, waterfalls, spa, main drain, infinite edge, etc.)

Infinite edges seem to be a part of all the pools I have done.  The architectural appeal is significant, and the way you can get the layering of different materials at certain vantage points.

Tip:  if you use a floating cover with an infinite edge, you need to reverse the angle on the infinite edge to trap to cover when the cover is closed. 

Rule of thumb, you need 5gal/min flowrate per LF of infinite edge to maintain 0.125" of water over the weir.  Nothing worse than an infinite edge that shows high spots at the weir edge.

Finishes-- your choices are plaster, tile, or a plaster modified with crystals or aggregate such as 3M Quartz, Pebble Sheen or Gem Sheen. 

Plaster is the most economical pool finish and should last 15 to 25 years if the substrate, and the bond to the substrate, were good.  Keep your plaster a light tint.  The bleaching from the pool chemicals that inevitably happens looks worse on a dark colored pool.

If your preference is for a dark color pool, use tile, or a dark aggregate mix-in.   

I used a glass mosaic tile on the pool in these photos, to match the color of the ocean off of Hawaii.

Saving energy is a big concern of pool owners.  When I have the budget, I specify the Hydralux cover from Aquamatic in Gilroy, CA.  95% of the heat is lost through the water surface, and the Hydralux cover is a floating segmented cover that stops a larger percentage of this heat loss.  They also offer a floating solar cover, that allows the irradiance from the sun to pass through this cover and trap it in the pool.  This does not meet spec as a safety cover, so you will still need the fence.

The other way is to install a solar thermal system that loops through the pool pumps.  My rule of thumb is that I get an extra month on either end of the season here in Northern California without using a lot of gas. 

Posted by Ted at 6:59 PM | Permalink

and making building materials perform un-natural acts (as a client so aptly put it) seems to be an increasing part of the challenge of producing insanely great places to live.

Glass is one material that is increasingly being used in unique, un-natural ways.  On a recent home, I used it in the main stair.  We had a few precedents to go on.  This application was a little more conventional than the glass staircases you see in the Apple stores.  Jobs patented the stair's design, you can download a copy here.  Dupont's Sentry Glass Plus interlayer plays a role in the structure, as did Depp Glass' embossed finish--we used the microdot on our job.  Wesley Depp was a great help in getting this design figured out.  Another installation that was instructive was on Seattle's City Hall, a glass bridge.

Building codes and liability issues have to be closely managed.  The math is actually pretty simple, and the Dupont SGP gives you a boost in strength if you need it.  We had to perform an IBC equivalency, and I worked closely with the chief building official to make sure we understood how this product met codes.  You have to dial in the strength with one of the layers broken, so you need to understand how the laminations work together.  Edge supporting helps a lot, but diminishes the cool factor.  And your fabrication drawings need to be exact.

One alternative we looked at but ended up not doing anything with was Schott's LightPoints LED equipped laminated glass product.  Maybe on my next project...

Posted by Ted at 3:13 PM | Permalink

This article in the Economist's Technology Quarterly  made me remember back about the path we took in understanding where LED lighting is now and how we could use it to meet our needs.

We found it was a good solution for both meeting Title 24 lighting requirements and cove lighting requirements on a recent project.  2005 Title 24 changed how we look at illuminating the homes we produce.

Look for LED's to start to encroach on the lighting turf in homes currently mandated to be compact fluorescent.  They range from 40 to 100 lumens/watt in the color spectrum most widely desired with a 50,000 hour projected life (25x longer than incandescent).

LED's are a fast moving technology, and as the technology moves down the price curve, I look to use this technology in more of my projects.  I don't know a single designer who is enthralled by the current code required lighting options (basically compact fluorescent (CFLs)).  LED's may be a welcome alternative, and they will change how fixtures look--can't wait to see how these are adapted.

California's Title 24 energy code basically mandates that 75% of the light fixtures in a kitchen be high efficacy, and the balance of lighting in the home either be high efficacy (above the solid line in the chart above) or controlled by an occupant sensor or dimmer switch. 

The big change I notice are occupant sensors in bathrooms, a higher number of compact fluorescent fixtures in kitchens and all lighting circuits with dimmer switches.

The trick I found about LED's is to get the light warm enough.  So you need the fixtures to produce greater than 60 lumens/watt in a 3000K color range (warm white) and a CRI (color rendering index) of >90.  Same goes for CFL's if you are evaluating those.

If you want to geek out on this, the relative cost can be explained by downloading and playing with this spreadsheet (hat tip to ProductDose.com) that compares incandescent, CFL's, and LEDs.

Posted by Ted at 1:35 PM | Permalink

CEDIA is the premier residential low voltage conference in the country.

Home theaters, distributed audio systems, lighting control, shade control, system integration, and security were all well represented.

The low voltage systems for almost all of the insanely great houses I have produced have been designed and installed by Engineered Environments, a great group of professionals providing an integrated solution to phone, security, audio, video, and lighting control.  I love these guys...

 
I had a chance to walk the exhibitor’s floor with Engineered Environments’ Tim Johnson, who designed the low voltage system for a recent project I produced in Palo Alto.

They are up for two Electronic Lifestyles Awards for this job, one for Best Overall Integrated Home, and one for Best Dressed System.

I have a deep appreciation of both Tim’s experience and his passion in coming up with systems that are designed well, and installed well.[Ed. Note--Engineeered Environments won three CEDIA Gold awards for our project.--Way to go!]

There was a lot of cool stuff at CEDIA this year—from

• the new 1080p video displays, to
• the shoot-out between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD high def DVD players, to
• integration layers, to hardware, to new speakers, to
• three chip DLP projectors.

 I was amazed at the amount of 1080p projectors and displays—when there is no native 1080p content available!  The pace of this industry moves very fast, and the benefits can be oversold.

[Ed. note--Tim advises me there are a few 1080p native format discs and players available.]

My objective was to see where the value lies today, and how costs are trending.  Low voltage systems have a cost/performance curve that is asymptotic--a few percentage points more in performance can cost a great deal more. 

As usual, there were a number of technologies in search of a problem—I guess you see that in any field that is technologically juiced.

The problem I typically need to solve is to have lighting, hvac control, audio/video and security systems that are

• Reliable
• Have an understood migration path, and
• Intuitive.

These systems constitute 12 to 15% of hard cost, and the technology moves fast.

Here’s what methinks merits a further look:

Windows MCE2005 is turning out to be a reliable and relatively intuitive platform for integration, and I saw a couple of solutions that provide functionality without having to be completely programmed (there were 430 hours in the system I mentioned above).

A lower cost alternative to the integration layer I have deployed previously is being offered by Lifeware, based on the MCE 2005 operating system.

It has that annoying blue MCE screen background, but at $2PSF of gross buildable, is worth looking into.  Did I mention that they are bankrolled by Microsoft, Intel and HP?

Look for some great integration applications to come out of this platform, and to be a lower cost solution to integration if you don’t need the programming power of AMX. Looks like programming is done off the .NET platform.

Niveus Media Center is a media storage server and media control center that is built off the MCE 2005 platform that had some great looking hardware—they have these massive heat sinks on the sides of their servers (eliminates the fan noise).

Integration is a big deal in the homes I produce, so I spent some time at Crestron, AMX, and Vantage integration layer vendors—I don’t see a great deal differentiating the three, other than AMX works better with Lutron Homeworks, which is my preferred lighting control system.

  AMX did have a new remote product, that uses the Zigbee technology to tie into the integration layer.

Sonance has several in-wall speaker options, with minimal grilles and is carrying the old mud –in Sound Advance line—they bought them a while ago.

Artison has a new inwall subwoofer product that has the functional equivalence of a 15” sub, but with an opposing driver design, fits into a standard stud bay and very limited vibration (the opposing drivers cancel each other out—eliminating inwall vibration.  They also have a solution that provides center channel audio without a separate center channel speaker box.

Fujitsu plasma monitors are the best plasma product around—Tim explained to me that Fujitsu gets first dibs on the plasma screens they manufacture, selling the lesser grade products off to their competitors.

Sony LCD flat panel displays are the best LCD screen on the market.

Stewart Filmscreens' Cinecurve product is the hottest screen product.  Using an anamorphic lens and masking system, this product gets creates the correct screen area for viewing media with different native aspects--it gets rid of the black bars. Microperforations (allow you to hide speakers behind the screen), and the curved projection screen combine to make this a great part of your next home theatre.

Kaleidescape media servers had a real crowd around them. Nice product, great user interface, and extremely intuitive.

Chief in-wall screen arm plasma display mounts disappear into the wall, but are massive enough to support a 65” screen.

Tim raves about California Audio Technology’s custom speakers—they have gone into two of my jobs. They provide a custom product tuned for a specific environment.

Tim really liked the AudioPatch Precis LT, an 8X8 (1RU) or 18x18(2RU) digital signal processor to customize each room of a distributed audio system.

My takeaway is that the integration layer is getting more robust, as they like to say in the tech business, and that there is a dearth of media high def enough to make the numbers work on the beautiful monitors I saw today. Up-converting is left to the eyes of the beholder--Faroudja was showing off several solutions to take video to a 1080p format from a DVD source (480i).

The Economist judged there was close to $25,000 in electronics in the new 7 series BMW (~25% of the total cost)—I don’t think we will approach that percentage in these insanely great homes.

I can easily see 10% without a lot of video distribution and touchscreens, and once you cross this line, 15% +/- 3% is probably a more realistic number.

Posted by Ted at 10:43 AM | Permalink

Always wondered why there aren't more robotic parking systems in NYC, BOS, or SF.  I remembered seeing a number of them when I was working in Tokyo in the early 90's...with land at $2400PSF (our project) to $25,000PSF (Ginza) it seemed liked the numbers worked in markets with high land prices, and where you can't get people out of their cars (like here).

The only one I was aware of here was in Hoboken, NJ.  And Wired came out today with "Giant Robot Imprisons Parked Cars". 

 

Why don't we have more here?  Politics, for one.  And it is a real bummer when the cars fall down when they are not supposed to.  Twice.  Construction problems--structural steel was out of alignment--a big no-no on what is basically an overhead crane, pallet and pulley system.  Facility was down for 26 hours once--an attendant's jacket was left on a parking pallet and fell into the machinery.  Operator error.

I dug into the numbers.  This is what I found. 

Harvard engineering students did a very informative study you can download here.  Cost to provide the technology is about $20K per space, exclusive of shell costs.  Operating costs are about a wash.  Savings really kick in on underground parking facilities greater than 2 levels, where the required volume is about half that of a self park facility.  Economics work on small footprint (<20KSF) above grade facilities.  Facility needs to be sized for SUV's--40% of cars sold today won't fit in traditional stackers.  Looks like breakeven is about $300- 350/mo, with $150 of that for ongoing operations and capital reserves.  We are not quite there yet in SF.  All in costs are $35 to $45K/space.

 Problem is Hoboken is a nightmare,  How do you get end users over the bad press?  Intellectual property is a new risk here.  A vendor having the ability to completely shut my asset down--now that's a negotiating position.

There is one non-pallet system set to go in the Norman Foster designed condo tower in Vancouver, BC.

I still like the automated concept, not as a money saver, but as a space saver and as an elegant way to decant people from their cars.  The system needs to be valet staffed and the benefit is better security and the ability to mask the facade, since you don't need the 15 airchanges/hr typical of a selfpark..  Arrival sequence/queuing needs to be carefully thought out, both in and out, as the number of transfer rooms determine max input/output.

In summary, it works where the volume of the building restricts the amount of allowable parking  [or storage] and reducing your cube from 4000CF to 1600CF per space makes economic sense.  The all in cost is about the same--$45K/space, and op costs are about the same as those of valet parking.

Posted by Ted at 11:53 AM | Permalink